Two Active Named Storms, Possibly Three by Friday, No Threat to Florida

Sep 10, 2013

Tuesday was officially the traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and for the first time this season, we are tracking two named storms at the same time with a third possibly forming by the end of the week. Gabrielle has resurfaced as a formidable tropical storm and will be passing near Bermuda over the next 24 hours. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane overnight as it pulls away from the Cape Verde Islands. And, a new tropical storm could form (would be named Ingrid) in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. However, none of these systems are a threat to Florida for the foreseeable future.


The remnants of Gabrielle have regenerated into a tropical storm and will be threatening Bermuda with heavy rain, choppy seas, and gusty winds through early Wednesday. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system later today to better identify a center of circulation and determine how strong Gabrielle is. Satellite data and buoy reports were used overnight by the National Hurricane Center to classify the former storm as tropical in nature once again. Modest strengthening is possible with Gabrielle as it moves north over Bermuda over the next 24 hours, but an approaching trough of low pressure and increasing amounts of wind shear are forecast to interfere with its development in 48 hours and cause Gabrielle to become post-tropical or weaken entirely. Other than some long period ocean swells in the Northeast, Gabrielle poses no threat to the United States.


Tropical Storm Humberto strengthened steadily overnight and this morning, and is now a strong tropical storm with winds of 65 mph. Wind shear is diminishing, the storm is more symmetrical than it was just 12 hours ago, and thunderstorms have become much more tightly wound around the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast is for Humberto to become the season's first hurricane by Wednesday morning, just barely beating the record latest date (since the 1940s) for such a feat set back in 2002 when Gustav became the season's first hurricane on September 11. Forecast data suggests Humberto could even strengthen briefly to a Category 2 storm with winds over 100 mph by late Wednesday before cooler waters and increasing wind shear induce some weakening. The forecast track for Humberto is almost due north until this weakening occurs, at which time the storm will likely turn back to the west. Humberto poses no threat to any land areas and is expected to be only a shipping interest for the coming week.


NHC says tropical wave near Yucatan Peninsula has a high chance of developing by Friday A tropical wave approaching the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is forecast to develop into our season's ninth named storm once it moves over the warm waters of the Southwestern Gulf. This region has been unusually active this year already, but the future storm Ingrid could be the strongest system yet to form in this part of the basin. Long range forecast model data suggests there will be a window of approximately 48 hours for the soon-to-be tropical storm to strengthen and that upper-level winds would carry it northwest toward the northeastern part of Mexico or the very southern tip of Texas. While it is too early to determine the exact track or strength of this system, it is highly unlikely that it would impact the State of Florida or the rest of the United States outside of extreme south Texas.