Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State believe it will be a near average season. Specifically, 12 named storms, five hurricanes, and two that will become major hurricanes. However, he says a lot will change in the next few months.
One of the big variables Dr. Klotzbach will be watching is how quickly the recent strong El Nino dissipates. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now says a La Nina, cooler than normal Pacific waters, will develop sometime this Fall. This is important because a La Nina can lead to an active hurricane season in the Atlantic, IF it develops soon enough.