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Flood Watch Continues for Southwest Florida Ahead of Alberto

Subtropical Storm Alberto is now forecast to strengthen and take a track a little closer to Florida's west coast. This has prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for much of the Greater Tampa Bay Area. A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued for sections of the Nature Coast north of Crystal River.

Rain from the season's first named storm moved into much of South Florida early Saturday morning, but in most cases it has been light and steady. Heavier rain bands from Subtropical Storm Alberto are forecast to move across the peninsula Saturday night and Sunday, and a Flood Watch continues for all of central and south Florida through Sunday evening.

The coastal hazards associated with Alberto, namely high surf, coastal flooding, and minor surge will begin to affect portions of southwest Florida Saturday night, moving up the coast to west-central sections of the state on Sunday. Water spouts and an isolated tornado are also possible in the stronger rain squalls Sunday, as low-level spin increases on Alberto's eastern side.

Beyond Sunday, Subtropical Storm Alberto is forecast to turn to the northwest - further away from Florida's west coast - and approach the Florida Panhandle. By Monday, conditions are projected to become more favorable for strengthening into a formidable tropical storm, and Alberto is likely to make landfall near or just west of Pensacola. Lingering moisture will likely lead to several more days of enhanced rainfall across the peninsula, but the coastal hazards should subside some Monday and Tuesday.

A Flood Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for the entire WGCU listening area through Monday.  The heaviest rain is likely to move into southwest Florida by Saturday morning and continue through Sunday evening. Rainfall totals could range from 4 and 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches possible This could lead to street flooding and minor river flooding.

Seas will likely become choppy, with wave heights of 6 to 10 feet possible Sunday, potentially leading to some minor coastal flooding. Tropical-storm-force winds will potentially begin impacting the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A few strong storms could produce waterspouts near the coast and isolated tornadoes in interior south and southwest Florida.

Subtropical Storm Alberto's moisture and resulting downpours may linger over the state through much of next week, further aggravating the flooding risk. However, other tropical weather hazards such as surge, wind and coastal flooding should subside by Tuesday.

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Jeff Huffman is Chief Meteorologist at the University of Florida in Gainesville. In addition to his full-time position at the university's radio and television stations, WUFT-FM/TV and WRUF-TV, the latter of which he co-founded, Huffman also provides weather coverage to public radio stations throughout Florida