- A hurricane watch is now in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as Tropical Isaac continues its trek through the Caribbean. At 11:00 AM the center of the storm was located near latitude 15.9 north, longitude 59.3 west with sustained winds of 45 miles an hour. Isaac is expected to develop into a hurricane as it moves toward the west at about 21 miles an hour. No watches or warnings have been posted for Florida but residents are advised to pay attention to the storm’s progress.
- At 8am EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Isaac was located about 210 miles east of Guadeloupe, or approximately 1,570 miles from Miami, Florida.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and Isaac is moving quickly westward at 19 mph. Tropical storm winds extend up to 45 miles from the center.
- This general motion is expected to continue for the next 2-3 days as it is steered around the southern edge of a large high pressure system in the central Atlantic Ocean.
- Computer model track guidance is in good agreement and these, along with the official NHC forecast, take Tropical Storm Isaac across the Leeward Islands tonight and passing south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Thursday.
- Beyond that time, high pressure should weaken, which will allow Isaac to curve northwest towards Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Some models have it curving earlier, moving towards the Bahamas, while others still signal a more westward movement towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
- Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable to promote strengthening (wind shear decreasing and warmer ocean temperatures), and Isaac should become a hurricane within the next 60 hours.
- Any land interaction with Haiti and Cuba in 72-96 hours could disrupt the storm and allow it to weaken, but warm water in the Florida Straits will allow for some re-strengthening.
- It is important to note that computer model guidance, especially beyond 72 hours, can be unreliable.
- Several Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions will be deployed today and tomorrow that will help computer models get into better agreement and increase confidence in the long-range track and intensity.
EARLIER:
Tropical Storm Isaac has formed in the eastern Caribbean. Tropical Storm watches and warning are up for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltge said it’s too soon to tell if Isaac poses a threat to Florida but residents should pay attention.
“We’ve got a system right now that we’re watching to the southeast and while it’s not immediate threat to Florida it certainly could become a greater concern as we get later into the week and the weekend,” he said.
Meanwhile the Republican National Committee is dusting off its hurricane contingency plan. The party’s presidential nominating convention gets underway in Tampa on Monday, August 27th.
EARLIER:
Tropical Storm Isaac has formed in the Eastern Caribbean. Tropical storm watches have been posted for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. National Hurricane Center Spokesman Dennis Feltgen said it’s too early to tell if the system will impact Florida.
“The track forecast has a great deal of confidence for the next couple of days but day 4 and 5, which is the upper end of the cone, has a pretty good deal of uncertainty there’s a good deal of spread in the forecast models. And beyond that there’s even a greater spread so there’s no way to predict with any certainty what could happen in the state of Florida,” he said.
Feltgen adds that this is the heart of hurricane season and people who don’t have hurricane supplies should get them now.