Some of the parched woods that were ready to burn in Southwest Florida last month did just that, charring thousands of acers in the region, destroying two homes and damaging or destroying several other structures.
Most of the other tinder-dry woody underbrush, much of it felled by Hurricane Ian last September, were soaked by the rains that fell on South Florida starting with the same low-pressure system the developed in the central Gulf of Mexico, swooped as far south as Southeast Florida, and dropped more than two feet on rain on Fort Lauderdale in mid-April.
April is often a critical month for the direction of wildfire activity in Florida.
Some years forest fires grow in size and intensity during the fourth month of the year and blazes burn into May, and even June, due to serious drought conditions like those widespread throughout the region in March.
Other years, April showers bring more than May flowers. In Florida, they often bring the end to the brunt of a region’s drought and thus its most active wildfire season.
There is no specific "end" to wildfire season in Florida, in large part because the Sunshine State is so vast. Late last September, when Category 5 Hurricane Ian was dumping feet of rain on Southwest Florida, the forests in the Panhandle were the driest in the country, even more so than California or Washington.
So while the woods have more moisture in them today, conditions can change back to extra-dry in a jiffy in Florida. Add a lightning bolt from early-rainy season showers and a small fire can become a larger one well into June or July. Lighting is a major cause of forest fires.
But for now it appears that system that inundated Fort Lauderdale has become the catalyst for the next weather pattern to take control - not be drought and wildfire, but typical summertime rainstorms starting in May and June.
That’s the Farmers’ Almanac forecast for this summer.
“Summer storms are predicted to be plentiful in the Southeast and South Central regions of the country with many summertime thunderstorms on tap.”
The Farmer’s Almanac bases its extended weather forecast on mathematical and astronomical formulas the consider sunspot activity, tidal action creates by the moon’s gravitational pull on the earth, the position of the other planets in our solar system as well as “proprietary equations.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency’s temperature and precipitation outlook will be issued in about a week. It is based on factors such as “the latest statistical and dynamical model guidance, impacts from decadal trends, local sea surface temperature anomalies, surface moisture conditions, and potential influence from the Madden Julian Oscillation.”
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index, a map used by the Florida Division of Forestry to assess the dryness of the soil and in contrast the likelihood the brush will burn, has dropped significantly in Southwest Florida from March to April.
The index ranges from zero when the ground is thoroughly inundated with water to 800 when it is bone dry. In March in Southwest Florida, the index was in the 600-700s; this month it has dropped to 400-500s.
The temporary burn ban issued by the City of Cape Coral in early March has been rescinded.
People are still urged to use caution with outdoor fires, whether for cooking or a campfire. Cape Coral’s rules for such fires is that they be no closer than 25 feet from a structure, stay small, and have handy and effective way to put out the fire in a hurry.
Environmental reporting for WGCU is funded in part by VoLo Foundation, a non-profit with a mission to accelerate change and global impact by supporting science-based climate solutions, enhancing education, and improving health.
Sign up for WGCU's monthly environmental newsletter, the Green Flash, today.
WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.
