A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico, according to a forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
The broad area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours is medium or about 50 percent. The formation chance through 7 days is high, about 70 percent.
There is also a trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves westward or west- northwestward.
The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday. Formation chance through 48 hours is low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days is also low, 30 percent.
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