The formation of a possible — read that as "likely" — storm system is being forecast by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean and the adjacent portions of Central America.
That's the forecast as given Saturday morning by the National Hurricane Center.
The NHC forecasters said: "Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days."
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The NHC's probability numbers? Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low, near 0 percent; Formation chances through the next seven days were pegged at a medium or 60 percent.
But the NHC isn't the only forecasting game in town. There are accurate and for-profit weather predictors and then there any number of armchair forecasters out there on social media, some fairly spot-on accurate — and others who are just as likely to "cry havoc and let slip the dogs" of weather (Sorry William), just to get the online eyeballs.
For example, the commercial weather forecaster AccuWeather on Friday issued a "media advisory" under the headline: "Gulf Coast Needs to Prepare for Potential Hurricane Impacts Next Week."
The AccuWeather forecasters, no slouches at the forecasting game, said the central U.S. Gulf Coast faces a heightened risk of direct impacts from a landfalling storm next week, but warned that residents along the entire Gulf coastline need to be on alert.
The advisory said AccuWeather expert meteorologists are urging families, businesses, emergency officials, and government leaders to prepare for the growing likelihood of direct impacts from a tropical storm or a hurricane along the U.S. Gulf coast next week.
“We want people to be prepared, not scared. Be ready and be flexible. We could be dealing with a serious hurricane threat on our doorstep by the middle of next week,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. “We increased the development potential to ‘high’ because we are concerned that a tropical storm can form in the Caribbean or Gulf and approach the United States, and there won’t be many days to track it.”
The evolving storm threat could impact offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as petroleum industries, refineries, fishing, cruises, and the tourism industry along the coast. The next tropical storm name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
Now, among the many, many sources of weather forecasting out there, especially on social media, there are normally great places to get an "idea" of what's possible.
Alternative weather forecasting sources
- A few sources of online weather information can be found here, here, and here. These are unofficial weather forecasting sources that can augment official weather forecasting information.
Some of these "forecasters" have the benefit of being involved in weather and emergency operations for decades before retiring and others are simply weather buffs; I take a peek at them from time to time and it's great to use them as valuable sources of additional — not "only" — information.
But you should also keep one eye toward the NHC and your normal official weather forecasting sources — hint, hint, WGCU and our Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) weather information provider.
Until there is more definite information on the "possible" or "likely" formation of a system, we'll leave you with these words from FPREN: "Until an area of low pressure forms, the long-term forecast is too uncertain to predict."
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