A disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean now designated as Invest 97 by the National Hurricane Center has an increasing probability of forming a stronger tropical system in the coming days and week.
The forecast as given Monday morning by the National Hurricane Center said about the system (AL97): "Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where additional development is possible.
"Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this system. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
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The NHC's probability numbers? Formation chance through the next 48 hours is high, near 70 percent; Formation chances through the next seven days were pegged at a high or 90 percent.
But the NHC isn't the only forecasting game in town. There are accurate and for-profit weather predictors and then there any number of armchair forecasters out there on social media, some fairly spot-on accurate — and others who are just as likely to "cry havoc and let slip the dogs" of weather (Sorry William), just to get the online eyeballs.
For example, the commercial weather forecaster AccuWeather on Sunday sent out an advisory: "Hurricane forecast to make landfall along the Gulf Coast next week."
AccuWeather expert meteorologists, no slouches at the forecasting game, forecast an evolving storm in the western Caribbean to intensify into a hurricane before moving north and making landfall along the United States Gulf Coast on Thursday.
“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “This setup has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.”
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family along the Gulf Coast be caught off guard. Give them a call or send them a text message and let them know to get ready for a hurricane. There is the potential that this storm could further strengthen into a major hurricane, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 miles per hour.”
AccuWeather said the developing tropical threat is currently forecast to impact similar areas that were hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023. The next tropical storm name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
Now, among the many, many other sources of weather forecasting out there, especially on social media, there are normally great places to get an "idea" of what's possible.
Alternative weather forecasting sources
- A few sources of online weather information can be found here, here, and here. These are unofficial weather forecasting sources that can augment official weather forecasting information.
Some of these "forecasters" have the benefit of being involved in weather and emergency operations for decades before retiring and others are simply weather buffs; I take a peek at them from time to time and it's great to use them as valuable sources of additional — not "only" — information.
But you should also keep one eye toward the NHC and your normal official weather forecasting sources — hint, hint, WGCU and our Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) weather information provider.
Until there is more definite information on the "possible" or "likely" formation of a system, we'll leave you with these words from FPREN: "Until an area of low pressure forms, the long-term forecast is too uncertain to predict."
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