Updated November 03, 2024 at 07:00 AM ET
In the race for Pennsylvania, Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs get a lot of the attention. But just 60 miles north of the city, the Lehigh Valley, which includes Lehigh and Northampton counties, is home to one of the tightest congressional races in the country.
Plus, Northampton County is one of 25 counties nationwide where voters chose former President Obama twice, then former President Trump, then President Biden in 2020. That year, Biden carried it by just .7 percentage points.
The political shifts here have been driven by major economic and demographic changes, as the area transformed from an industrial steel town to a more diversified economy.
“One of the differences between the Lehigh Valley and the western part of the state, which have become very solidly sort of Trump Republican parts of the state — the Lehigh Valley has been recovering in the last decade,” said Dan Mallinson, a professor of political science at Penn State Harrisburg. “It's one of the fastest growing parts of the state economically.”
That economic growth has brought huge population growth, including an increase in the Latino population of the area. For example, Allentown, the largest city in the region, was 12% Latino in 1990. Today, the city's population is nearly 55% Latino, predominantly Puerto Rican and Dominican.
Mallinson says the Lehigh Valley mirrors the broader political dynamics of Pennsylvania: Democratic urban centers are surrounded by swingy suburbs and more conservative rural areas.
There are Latinos living alongside white working class voters, and a number of conservative, white Catholic Democrats.
At a September rally with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Democratic Rep. Susan Wild explained why this area could be pivotal.
“Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will go blue, right? They're going to have to work on their turnout. But we know they go blue,” Wild said.
“Our district — Pennsylvania 7 — is the third largest region in Pennsylvania. It is the largest swing district in the biggest swing state that can deliver 19 electoral votes. But if you don't win our district, you don't win Pennsylvania,” she predicted.
And winning the White House could come down to winning Pennsylvania. That’s why Trump and Vice President Harris are both fighting hard to court these voters.
Harris’ final day of campaigning will bring her to Allentown, Pa., just days after Trump visited the same city.
Lehigh Valley's transformation
Five dormant blast furnaces tower over the Lehigh River, overlooking downtown Bethlehem, Pa.
They stand at the center of what was once the Bethlehem Steel plant, a complex spanning 1,800 acres and 4.5 miles.
Here they made everything from aircraft carriers, to gears for Maytag washing machines. At its height during World War II, the steel produced a ship a day and employed as many as 35,000 people, said Mike Piersa, a historian at the National Museum of Industrial History.
“That was only 10, maybe 15% of the corporation's operations … on a global scale. But for a local scale, it's a city within the city,” Piersa said.
But like so many other industrial powerhouses, it faced challenges in the later 20th century, and the plant shut down in 1998.
Don Cunningham was three months into his term as the mayor of Bethlehem at the time.
“It wasn't a surprise,” Cunningham said. “In fact, my campaign was based on life after steel that we had to reinvent ourselves."
“A lot of folks still couldn't imagine that there was going to be a way to have an economy and a city that wasn't based on it," Cunningham remembered.
"And, you know, fast forward to today and we're better off, right? I mean, the air's cleaner. The water's cleaner. The economics are diversified. The skillsets are more varied,” he continued.
Now those rusted out blast furnaces overlook an arts district and a casino. Instead of battleships and appliance parts, the Lehigh Valley now manufactures medical devices, guitars and semiconductors. The health care system is one of the largest employers in the region. Amazon has more than 3,000 workers here.
Trump’s pitch here is focused on voters who feel like they haven’t benefited from the economic changes of the last decades, namely white working class voters who feel like they’re not better off. He’s consistently promised to bring back U.S. steel, coal and manufacturing jobs. It’s a message that helped him win Northampton County and Pennsylvania in 2016.
Cunningham, who served as a Democrat but now works in a nonpartisan role at the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation, said he understands why "Make America Great Again" appeals to voters who yearn for the old industrial economy. But he said it’s not that simple.
“I think getting angry about it and trying to long for or recreate the past. It's just not going to work,” he said said. “Even if we make steel again in America at the level we made it previously, it's not going to require as many workers because it's automated. You're not going back.”
Latinos make up a growing voting bloc
Another key to winning this area will be turning out those Latino voters. They overwhelmingly vote blue, but Trump made some inroads with them in 2020.
This time around, Mallinson said Pennsylvania Latinos could be "very much in play for either party.”
Glenn Geissinger, the chair of the Northampton County Republican Committee, said many Latino voters have values aligned with the GOP.
“Most Latino voters want legal immigration. They don't want illegal immigration,” Geisinger said. “Most of them are pro-life, which is the predominant position of the Republican Party. They want a strong economy. They want the opportunity to live the American dream. They don't want big government.”
But remarks at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally last week, where a comedian called Puerto Rico a pile of garbage, could undo some of those gains. Some Latinos protested Trump's appearance in Allentown days later.
Matt Tuerk, who is the first Latino mayor of Allentown and a surrogate with the Harris campaign, said those remarks “might push people who might have been sitting on the couch out to vote — and vote for Vice President Harris.”
Part of Walz's visit to the Lehigh Valley in September focused on reaching out to Latino voters.
“We need to elect Kamala and Tim so we could get ahead and not just get by. We cannot go backwards,” Puerto Rican actress Liza Colón-Zayas said on stage at that rally.
“Because we remember. After Hurricane Maria ... how he disrespected us and how he called Puerto Rico dirty and poor and tossed paper towels at us,” she added.
Inflation, immigration and abortion are top of mind for voters here
Democrats and Republicans agree that “kitchen table” economic issues are top of mind for voters here. Geissinger says inflation is the number one concern he hears from voters when he's knocking doors. He tells them: “If you want inflation to come down, then vote Republican.”
“The price of food and the price of gas is outrageous. And it wasn't under him,” said Trish Freda, a 58-year-old Trump supporter from Pen Argyl. “So I’d like to go back to that.”
Andy Freda, Trish's husband, said his top issue is border security.
“The president's number one job is protecting the border and keeping the country safe,” he said. “And the economy, that’ll all go with it, too. Once you close the border, it's America first. “
Lisa Green, a retired nurse from Bethlehem, voted for Trump in 2016. But she says what she saw in his first term changed her mind.
“I've been a Republican most of my voting years and I thought, ‘Oh, well, he's not a typical politician,’” she said. “Maybe he'll be something that'll, you know, evoke change and maybe they'll actually get something done in Washington. But boy, was I wrong.”
Green voted for Biden in 2020 and plans to vote for Harris. She said Trump’s handling of the pandemic, his actions on January 6 and his rhetoric about immigrants all changed her perspective. Abortion is also motivating her vote this year — for president and down ballot races.
“I am a Roman Catholic, so I am pro-life, but I would never want to make a decision for another woman to have an abortion or not,” she said. “I'm going to have a hard time voting for someone who doesn't think women should have that choice.”
Voters here know that all eyes on Pennsylvania. That's exciting to Eric Fleisch, an 49-year-old Harris supporter, from Allentown who attended the September Walz rally.
“We know how purple our area is,” he said. “I mean, every other house has a different sign. I also work at Penn State, so I drive from this little purple bubble to that blue bubble through deep red country. So I know how tight this race is going to be. And it's exciting to know that that the little things we can do can make an impact.”
Tuerk acknowledges that despite the growing economy of the area, voters are feeling squeezed by high prices.
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