Multiple tropical waves have lined up across the eastern Atlantic, and one or more could develop into a named storm over the next five days. Furthermore, long range forecast data and climatology suggests that the U.S. is vulnerable to a tropical threat in the next 10 to 15 days.
The situation in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic is complicated, to say the least. The MDR is where the majority of tropical cyclone form every season. This week, it is full of disturbed weather. The question is whether or not one of these disturbances will be able to churn up on its own and develop. Sometimes, the clutter of too much nearby activity can interrupt necessary processes for one system to mature. As of Tuesday morning, model guidance wasn’t yielding much confidence on which system (if any) would develop.
Here’s a breakdown of each tropical wave identified by the National Hurricane Center.
The tropical wave with the highest chances of development, identified by forecast models as Invest 99, is located about a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is moving west at 15 mph. Forecast data suggests development, if it were to occur, would be slow and most likely toward the end of the week. If Invest 99 moves west and into the Caribbean, atmospheric conditions are projected to be less conducive for intensification. However, if Invest 99 takes a more west-northwest track (close to the Greater Antilles), conditions might be more favorable for continued growth.
Just a few hundred miles behind Invest 99 is another tropical wave, which is not yet identified for model runs. Conditions are marginally favorable for some gradual development over the next five days, and the most likely path for this disturbance is to the west-northwest, placing it on a trajectory north of Invest 99.
The most vigorous of the three tropical waves was emerging off the west coast of Africa Tuesday morning. Long range forecast data also suggests this wave could gradually develop into a tropical cyclone, but inconclusive on its fate beyond five days.Today is traditionally a turning point in the Atlantic Hurricane Season, as more than half of the average annual activity occurs in the next 60 days.
Multiple factors contribute to the sudden spike in tropical storms and hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures have reached their annual maximum, mean sea-level pressures start to fall (which reduces upper-level wind shear), and the amount of convection-squelching Saharan dust decreases.
Most reliable forecast agencies have predicted that the 2017 season will be active (compared to normal) overall, with NOAA even stating last week that it could be “extremely active”. The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network encourages all Floridians to finish their seasonal preparations this week while the weather is calm. Our team of meteorologists, reporters and hosts around the state have been preparing for months to keep you informed through any potential event all season long.
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