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Peter And Rose To Turn Northward, 98L Likely To Develop

The Tropical Atlantic has had no shortage of tropical storms in recent days, but they have been weak so far. That may change with a tropical wave, called "Invest 98L" in a few days.

The center of poorly-organized Tropical Storm Peter was located a bit more than 100 miles north of the Leeward Islands Tuesday morning. It is moving toward the west, but is forecast to make a northwestward and then northward turn later this week. Strong upper-level winds are forecast to weaken Peter into a depression as it stays south of Bermuda by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Rose is about 900 miles from the Cape Verde Islands and is moving quickly toward the northwest. Dry air and strong upper-air winds — not all that different from what Peter is forecast to experience — are expected to hasten Rose's demise by the weekend over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Perhaps of greater interest in several days is "Invest 98L", a strong tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is forecast to become a depression later this week over the deep tropics. A large number of forecast models predict 98L to strengthen and be positioned a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles to start the upcoming weekend. Confidence is quite low in its future path; there is at least a 1000 mile difference between the various global models. This is often a sign the atmosphere is in a chaotic, or highly unpredictable state, later this weekend and early next week. For that reason, it is not possible to be confident that 98L will turn out to sea like Tropical Storms Peter and Rose, and Hurricane Larry before it.

A separate area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles southeast of New Foundland. This low is the remnant of what was once Tropical Storm Odette which formed Friday afternoon east of North Carolina. The low could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics this week, but will eventually turn out to sea by the weekend.

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Ray Hawthorne