SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
The first presidential debate had little to no impact on President Biden's standing in the polls against former President Donald Trump, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll released yesterday. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro joins us. Domenico, thanks so much for being with us.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Great to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: So much talk devoted after the debate to President Biden's - I think we can safely say - shaky performance.
MONTANARO: Yeah.
SIMON: And yet he continues to poll better than Donald Trump. What accounts for that?
MONTANARO: Well, you know, I mean, this is within the margin of error, but it is important to note that there really hasn't been much change since before the debate to now. In fact, Biden gained a point, which is obviously a very small amount. But it's also important to note that majorities think neither man should be on the ballot at all. The survey did find, though, that by a 2-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it's more concerning to have a president who doesn't tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve. A majority also said Biden has the character to be president, while a majority also said Trump does not. All of that may offer some clues as to why Biden's standing is holding up because there is a strong anti-Trump faction in the country.
SIMON: As you go over the polling results, what do you see as the strong spots for President Biden's approval?
MONTANARO: Well, you know, his approval rating's at 43% with all adults. But what's notable here is it jumps to 47% with those who say that they're definitely going to be voting. And this, I have to say, though overall is not reflective of the swing states. You know, a Democratic presidential candidate usually has to do better than Biden is doing typically for this to translate to an Electoral College win because a lot of those swing states are a shade more conservative than the country at large, because so much of the Democratic votes are concentrated on the coast and not spread out across the country.
SIMON: And could that be why a number of congressional Democrats have called on the president to withdraw from the race?
MONTANARO: Yeah, I think that's why we're seeing a lot of the Democrats who are coming out and calling for Biden to step aside are from a lot of these swing districts. They're hearing different things from their constituents. They're seeing different things within their polling than we see nationally. You know, and the congressional ballot, which Democrats have a little bit of an edge on, is only 46-44 in Democrats' favor, and they usually need a bigger edge than that to be able to win over the House. They need a bigger margin than that because of gerrymandering, and again, because of how Democratic votes are spread out.
And we also had about 7% said that they plan to skip the presidential line on the ballot and vote for other candidates and ballot measures. That's about the highest that I can remember seeing because that's about the ceiling that you normally would get. You don't really see it much higher than that. And I think that it presents a difficult case for a lot of swing state Senate Democrats and those congressional Democrats as well, people like John Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio. It's going to be hard for them to overcome what could be double-digit wins by former President Trump in their states. And we know that the Cook Political Report has moved a lot of these races a slight bit more in Republicans' direction.
SIMON: Domenico, in this polling information, are there warning signs for Donald Trump?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, as I said earlier, people say that they're more concerned about having a president who doesn't tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve. But one other flag here for Trump is the agenda. People broadly disapprove of this Project 2025, this plan that The Heritage Foundation has laid out as a potential blueprint for a second Trump term. Now, Trump himself has recently said he's had nothing to do with it, and that these numbers, I have to say, may be the reason for that, because 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Project 2025. Just 15% have a favorable view of the plan. Forty-four percent - a plurality of Americans - either never heard of it or unsure of it. That really means that we're going to see this message war over the next several months about trying to define Project 2025 and trying to tie it to Trump. And a lot of his allies and people that he's been associated with, you know, were at the beginning, at the inception of writing this.
SIMON: Do voters seem to believe that President Biden can win? What about the potential of other Democratic candidates?
MONTANARO: Well, that's the thing. Six in 10 believe that Trump will actually win, and a quarter of Democrats is included in that. We tested a few other alternatives - Vice President Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom - all are about the same as what Biden is doing. They're all tied, and, you know, they're not actually running at this point. These numbers could and would change most likely if they were actual candidates and could either articulate the case and defend themselves or, you know, come under different scrutiny. What the poll does show is different strengths and weaknesses for some of these candidates that are really fascinating.
SIMON: NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thanks so much for being with us.
MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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