AILSA CHANG, HOST:
A statement in the name of the former president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, says that he left his country involuntarily after rebel fighters surrounded a Russian air base in his country and he was flown out. Assad's fortunes may have taken a turn for the worse, but that is not the case for Turkey, which shares a long border with northern Syria. Turkey has supported opposition groups since the beginning of the civil war and is now expected to play a significant role in shaping the new Syria. To understand all of this, we're joined now by NPR's Fatma Tanis in Istanbul. Hi, Fatma.
FATMA TANIS, BYLINE: Hi, Ailsa.
CHANG: OK, let's go back for a minute here. Remind us what Turkey's role had been all of these years in the Syrian civil war.
TANIS: Sure. So before the civil war, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad had good relations. But after Assad's brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters in 2011, Erdogan cut ties, and then he put his intelligence and military support behind the rebel groups fighting Assad. Turkey also opened its doors to almost 4 million Syrian refugees, and all of that came with a lot of domestic and economic difficulties and security threats. So now after more than a decade, there's a sense of vindication in the Turkish government that it wasn't all for nothing.
CHANG: So what are Turkey's roles or goals in Syria now?
TANIS: Senior Turkish officials clearly laid out their goals in interviews over the weekend. The first priority, they say, is to dismantle the Kurdish fighter group known as the YPG. It's a significant part of a Kurdish coalition in northeast Syria that the U.S. provided with weapons to help it fight ISIS. But Turkey says that the YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which it has been fighting for over four decades and calls a terrorist group. So now Turkey is asking the U.S. to reassess its position with the YPG. There's no change from Washington on that so far. And, Ailsa, Turkey's second objective is a stable and united Syria. Its defense minister is offering military support and training to the new leaders. Here's political scientist Mustafa Kibaroglu explaining.
MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU: I think Turkey will be there to help with the new administration because what happens there has a direct bearings on Turkish prosperity, security and everything. So we cannot just turn a blind eye.
CHANG: OK, that said, what kind of influence might Turkey have on the new Syrian leadership, you think?
KIBAROGLU: Well, they're going to be heavily invested, and we're seeing the signs already. The Turkish Embassy in Damascus is up and running. Turkey's intelligence chief paid a visit last week and met with the leader of the HTS. That's the group that defeated Assad's army. And its foreign minister, Hakan Fidean said in a recent interview that Turkey knows HTS better than anyone else and that they've been working to moderate the HTS' Jihadist roots and encourage them to form an inclusive government. But there are still so many questions about what the new Syrian administration will look like. Here's political analyst Soli Ozel.
SOLI OZEL: If HTS gains more power, how much more amenable is it going to be to Turkey's suggestions, recommendations? That remains to be seen.
TANIS: Still, experts say that Syria's new leaders will have to rely on Turkey to help them establish public order and distribute resources like water and electricity. And some of those millions of refugees in Turkey that we mentioned will likely go home, and they'll provide more means of influence for the Turkish government.
CHANG: Well, ultimately, what does all of this mean for President Erdogan of Turkey?
TANIS: It's a big win for him domestically. He'd been under fire from pretty much everyone over his Syria policy and acceptance of refugees. People had really been questioning whether Turkey made a mistake supporting the opposition groups instead of Assad. Now with an incoming Trump administration, things are looking up for Erdogan. President-elect Trump spoke about this today in his press conference. Let's listen.
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DONALD TRUMP: Turkey is a major force, by the way, and Erdogan is somebody I got along with great. But he has a major military force, and his has not been worn out with war.
TANIS: Given all that, Ailsa, analysts say that we'll likely see Erdogan having a more prominent presence on the global stage and a key role in the creation of a new Syria.
CHANG: That is NPR's Fatma Tanis in Istanbul. Thank you, Fatma.
TANIS: Thanks, Ailsa. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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