It's the season where the tropical chatter starts, especially when a model run shows a rogue tropical system developing.
But each of us, regardless of whether you are a meteorologist or not, should know about several factors that might not be all there in this big tropical recipe.
First, models are just that — models. They should be taken as guidance.
Long-range models usually have a more significant margin of error. The longer the forecast is, the more errors it will have.
Second, numerical weather models are run several times a day. The GFS, more commonly known as the American Model, is updated 4 times daily at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z (Coordinated Universal Time).
Each of these runs can have different outcomes, usually depending on the ingested data (this is one of the reasons for having good current data, like the launch of weather balloons and local observations). So, a system that the a model run might be showing, might disappear the next run.
Remember that models also take in historical data, so there are times that models also take in historical data. The more data they have, the better.
But sometimes, if it lacks certain data, other data takes over. Therefore, a run might be based more on historical trends or data than a good model (future) output. This might be what we are seeing at times.
This is especially true in certain weather models at the beginning of the season. For example, the Canadian Model often shows a catastrophic hurricane in the Gulf during May or early June. Although this is not impossible, we meteorologists know that the odds of this happening are often very low due to the atmosphere not sustaining such a system so early in the season, due to water temperatures, the jetstream placement, etc., but this comes with experience.
Let's talk about what the GFS shows for April.
The 6Z GFS run of March 28 showed an extensive and strong front moving across the Tennessee Valley and east sweeping through eastern Texas. This front would enter the Gulf and leave some energy behind by Sunday, April 6, over the western Gulf. As the front pushes over Florida, it will pull the low pressure to the northeast as it strengthens.
At this point, this system wouldn't even be considered a tropical system because it would have fronts attached to it, but by April 10, a lonely low-pressure system, not connected to a front, could be just west of Florida and dissect the state through April 11.
Perhaps then it would be (semi) tropical at this point. This run shows plenty of rains affecting Florida between April 6 and 11.
What does this mean?
As the saying goes, "April showers, brings May Flowers"
Nothing at this point. It is just one model run. The next model run was realized on March 28, the 12Z, and it also shows a low-pressure system developing from leftover energy on April 8 or 9. This system would then move over Texas, bringing heavy rains to the Texas coast between April 6 and 8. Here, you start to notice the big margin of error between the same model but different runs.
We could be getting hints that there might be heavier rain episodes in April. However, we also know that April, although still technically the dry season, could be volatile as it usually experiences "the beginning of the end" of the dry season, which generally lasts to May. For some parts of Florida, it is the beginning of May, and for others, it is towards the end.
Hurricane season 2025
If, and "if" with a big asterisk, a system would form before the season officially starts, it doesn't mean we would have a more active or less active system, as there is no correlation between the two. You will begin to hear more about this upcoming season in the coming weeks as hurricane forecasts are issued by different entities, many unofficial and some official.
We will share two hurricane season forecasts with you, as they are the most trusted, based on reliable data, and have good foundations: the Colorado State University and the official forecast by the National Hurricane Center.
Colorado State will issue its forecast on April 3, 2025, and the NHC will release it by the end of May.
You don't have to wait until the season starts to prepare for it. To be ready, you can review many things in your home and family plan. In fact, if there are simple projects you can work on now to secure your property, you should do them now to beat the rush and save some money, too. An emergency plan should always be prepared in everyone's homes; you can also have that ready.
Copyright 2025 Storm Center