Editor's note: Saturday afternoon, Tropical Storm Beryl intensified into a hurricane and was forecast to rise to dangerous Category 4 status when it reaches the Windward Islands Monday.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently-upgraded Tropical Storm Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Additionally, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Barbados.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today.
Saturday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was moving toward the west near 21 mph. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to become a hurricane Saturday night or Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
Once in the Caribbean, this system will be in prime hot waters and low wind shear. The official NHC track shows this system as a hurricane once inside the Caribbean, but keep in mind that intensity models could have great fluctuations. This system can become stronger sooner. the eastern Caribbean Islands should be preparing for a storm one category stronger than what the forecast calls for.
Meteorological models are showing consistency in this system staying over the south and central Caribbean at least through Tuesday afternoon, its center traveling well south of the Hispaniola.
After Wednesday, some models are showing the system to start to make a northward turn. But this is when the models also start to diverge a little.
It is too far out to know if, where, and when this system could be making landfall after Wednesday. At this point, the continental U.S. should continue to monitor this system closely. It’s starting at the beginning of next week when forecasters should have a better idea if the system will be turning and by when.
When forecasters at the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network Storm Center have this answer, it will become clear which areas could be at risk. Stay tuned the FPREN team of meteorologists will continue to bring updates throughout the weekend and the rest of the season.
Other weather systems being watched include:
Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula later today.
The system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development.
A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.*
Formation chances: through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent; through 7 days, medium, 40 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chances: through 48 hours, low, 10 percent; through 7 days, medium, 50 percent.
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