Today marks the hurricane season's peak: What's next as Francine nears the Gulf Coast

While it’s widely known that September 10 marks the peak of hurricane season, some would argue that the Atlantic basin may have missed the memo, despite the fact that Hurricane Francine is rapidly approaching the Gulf coast in the next 24 hours or so.

Speaking of Francine…it's expected to bring the Florida Panhandle between 3 to 5 inches of rain for areas west of Crestview and south of Tallahassee. The rest of the Panhandle will see between 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Much of the Panhandle west of Tallahassee has a slight chance of flash flooding. Flooding rains, isolated tornadoes, some wind and dangerous rip currents are all in play for residents along the Panhandle.

September 10 marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. It's also when conditions are most favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop.

But social media has been buzzing about the lackluster hurricane season so far. Changes in the monsoon pattern, dry air, Saharan dust and warmer temperatures in an upper layer of the atmosphere all switched up the ingredients for an early active hurricane season.

Statistically, this season is behind, but there are still 82 days left in the hurricane season and ample time for activity to pick back up according to experts.

The table below shows that the sixth named storm of a typical Atlantic hurricane season does not happen until Aug. 29. Based on data from the past 30 years, the sixth hurricane is usually expected around Oct. 15. This year there have been six named storms, including Francine. Four hurricanes have formed so far, when Francine was upgraded to a hurricane Tuesday night.

While the 2024 season is behind record projections that were anticipated for this year, experts warn to not let your guard down.

Colorado State University is widely known as one of the most respected authorities on tropical seasonal outlooks. Just this past week, they modified their outlook for the next two weeks, forecasting slightly below average activity for parts of September. They will have another update in about a week.

And there could be strength in numbers. Among the groups listed on the Seasonal Hurricane Predictions platform, all predicted an above-average season, with the average of all of the seasonal forecasts calling for 11 hurricanes.

Seasonal outlooks can predict what happens overall during a hurricane season, but they do not predict when the activity will occur. The 2024 Seasonal forecast outlooks indicated the main "ingredients": record warm or very warm water and an active monsoon season — appeared to be in place this year for a repeat of the 27 named tropical systems in 2005 or even the 30 named storms in 2020.

The ocean is still extremely warm or at near record temperatures at the surface and in the upper layer of the ocean, according to hurricane experts.

And based on the chart below, the second half of this hurricane season should be by all accounts, active.

Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic after September 10

With Hurricane Francine looming off of Louisiana's coast, impacts to the United States are ongoing. Experts say it's important to remember that given the extraordinary arrival of Beryl so early in the season, and the extreme water temperatures remaining in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, don't write off the 2024 just yet. Every season since 1900 with a hurricane in the tropical Atlantic before Aug. 1 ended in an above normal season, according to Colorado State.

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