EDITOR'S NOTE: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. The warning comings from the effects of a system that’s now being called Potential Tropical Storm Four and is currently approaching Cuba. Also in effect is a Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka. UPDATE COMING AT 2 p.m.
The tropical wave we have been watching for the last 7 days continues to bring heavy rains to the Greater Antilles and it is set to continue to be very disorganized through the beginning of the weekend.
It is this lack of organization that is preventing it from taking a northward turn. The messier, the harder it is for the high-pressure system to pick it up and guide it northward, keeping it east of Florida.
So, the track has shifted and now we expect this messy system to move west of Florida and enter the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
The threat of potential landfall in Florida of what is being now called Invest 97L resulted in Governor Ron DeSantis late on Thursday issuing Executive Order 24-156 (Emergency Management – Invest 97L) declaring a state of emergency in 54 of the state's 67 counties.
Besides Southwest Florida's Collier, Lee, Charlotte, and Sarasota counties, the following were also placed under the state of emergency: Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Citrus, Clay, Columbia, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, , Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.
What’s happening with Invest 97L?
This tropical wave was officially labeled Invest 97L and this simply just means that the National Hurricane Center is watching it even closer, and the labeling helps differentiate in model outputs.
Conditions are likely to become more favorable for it to become better organized on Saturday, but keep in mind that it is not expected to become a full-fledged system right away on Saturday.
It is likely to continue without a well-defined center of circulation with rains and thunderstorms spread out over Florida.
Heavy rains coming to Florida.
Florida is expected to get an uptick in rain and thunderstorm activity this weekend, with rain moving from south to north.
Late Saturday, the storms and showers will be mainly moving from west to east. You can bet on the periods of heavy rainfall to continue through early next week, and depending on the direction the system takes, the rain could last for a longer period next week.
Some models are hinting at areas with more than 7 inches of rain. Keep in mind that we have a long stretch to go, and lots of factors at play, so exact amounts on exact locations will change.
There is lots of uncertainty about it becoming a strong hurricane. Based on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast there could still be 7 days until this system receives a name. Florida needs to be ready for a big rain event.
Copyright 2024 Storm Center