http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK0MSPY51k0
The remnants of former Tropical Storm Dorian are still alive, and actually getting healthier. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a medium chance of redeveloping. Florida Public Radio Meteorologist Jeff Huffman has been tracking the latest developments overnight.
Dorian was never really dead, but it was certainly on life support for about 48 hours. And while its vital signs seem to be improving, the road back to a healthy tropical storm is a long, but possible one. In fact, the National Hurricane Center identified the remnants of former Tropical Storm Dorian (Invest 91) as having a medium chance of developing back into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.PRECISION POINTS
• Remnants of Dorian are healthier, but still not a tropical storm
• Hurricane hunters investigating again today
• Will move through Bahamas Wednesday, possible influences on south Florida Thursday or Friday
PAST 24 HOURS: Hurricane hunter aircraft flew into the system on Sunday and found no justification for re-classifying it because a low-level center of circulation could not be found. Shortly after that plane landed, though, a significant amount of convection (or thunderstorms) began firing about 100 miles to the northeast of what was perceived as the area of interest. Satellite data also suggested that the system had become healthier aloft, with a large area of outflow depicted in the cirrus clouds above the thunderstorms. This is usually a sign that high pressure is building above the system and allowing it to breathe, or giving it an exhaust pipe if you will. The aforementioned convection continued to fire overnight, but in a rather disorganized way, so as of Monday morning Invest 91 was still just an open tropical wave. An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, which is likely the earliest the National Hurricane Center would make a call or whether to issue advisories on Dorian again.
RIGHT NOW: Invest 91 sits approximately 200 miles north of the Leeward Islands, moving west at 15 mph. Thunderstorms are persistent, but disorganized near and north of the system's perceived center.
FORECAST: The remnants of Dorian have at least three more days over warm ocean water and must be watched closely. The upper-level environment has become marginally favorable for development, and the earlier influx of dry air has been overcome in recent hours thanks to the development of new thunderstorm activity.
As is typically the case of a weak system, model data is in respectable agreement on Invest 91's forecast path but almost clueless on the projected intensity. The general consensus of the most-reliable forecast models is for the remnants of Dorian to continue moving in a west-northwest fashion toward the Turks and Caicos Islands Tuesday, nearing the Bahamas on Wednesday.
The path thereafter is largely dependent on the strength and structure of the system, which is highly unknown at this point. At this point, it would be safe to say that some influences - such as heavy rain showers and gusty winds - from Invest 91 (or the remnants of Dorian) could be felt in parts of South Florida as early as Thursday.
There is only a low chance that there would be impacts on Florida's Atlantic Coast from a weak tropical system Friday or Saturday.
Considering the significant level of uncertainty surrounding Invest 91, Floridians should stay aware and informed of future forecast updates throughout the week.