El Niño may be Delayed, Impacts on Season Questionable

The newest data from NOAA indicates the eastern Pacific waters have actually cooled a bit over the past few weeks, a trend that is not supportive of a developing El Niño. However, the forecast for those conditions to develop by fall remains at 70 percent. And since other weather patterns around the globe are not fully reflective of El Niño conditions, confident is not as high that an El Niño will play as major of a role in our season's overall activity. Nonetheless, higher than normal wind shear and pockets of dry air from Africa will continue to stifle any new development in the tropics over the next five days.