For the third time in about a week, there is a risk of tornadoes in parts of Florida. The active, El Niño enhanced, weather pattern continues Saturday Night as yet another strong storm system moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. This one is particularly dangerous because the highest chances of severe weather will occur while most people are asleep and over a very populated region. Anyone near the metro areas of Tampa, Orlando, Sarasota and Fort Myers need to pay close attention to local media and have a way of being woken up should a warning be issued.
The risk of a tornado is greatest between 2 and 8 am Sunday, along and 100 miles on either side of a line from Sarasota to Orlando (see map). Some of the thunderstorms may also produce straight-line winds up to 60 mph that could cause structural damage. This risk extends as far north as Ocala and Daytona Beach to as far south as Naples and Miami, with south Florida’s risk extending until about noon. In addition to the thunderstorms, heavy rain will fall for several hours overnight across much of the state north of I-4.
A stronger jet stream, carrying energy and moisture all the way from the Pacific Ocean, is contributing to the active weather. It’s a pattern that repeats itself many times during the winter months of an El Niño. Historical data suggests there is a 60 percent increase in the number of tornadoes that hit Florida from this type of weather phenomenon.