8/27/12 11:30 AM
Isaac is moving west northwest over the eastern gulf of mexico. All watches and warnings have been discontinued for the west coast of florida.
Today will be partly sunny and windy with highs in the mid 80’s, with showers and a possible thunderstorm.
The wind is southeast around 25 miles an hour.
Tonight scattered showers and thunderstorms before midnight then a chance for thunderstorms after midnight. It will be mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 70’s.
8/27/2012 8:30 a.m.
Tropical Storm Isaac is about 185 miles west-southwest of Fort Myers with maximum sustained winds still near 65 mph. Isaac is moving on a west-northwestern trajectory at about 14 mph which is expected to continue today.
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are calling for a gradual decrease in the storm’s forward speed with a turn toward the Northwest by Tuesday.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Florida’s west coast from Tarpon Springs southward to the Keys. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for southwest Florida until 9:00 a.m.
8/26/12 11:00 PM
The west coast of Florida is under a Tropical storm warning.
Isaac is moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico moving west-northwest near 14 miles an hour. It should make a gradual turn toward the northwest as it slows down.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 miles an hour. It will become a hurricane in a day or two.
Expect 4-10 inches of rain, 2-4 feet of storm surge, isolated tornadoes throughout the night and dangerous surf and rip currents for the next couple of days.
8/26/12 8:00 PM
Isaac is moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The west coast of Florida is under a Tropical storm warning.
Isaac is moving west-northwest near 15 miles an hour. It should make a gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in speed over the next 48 hours. The center is expected to move over the eastern Gulf Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 miles an hour. It will become a hurricane in a day or two.
Expect 4-10 inches of rain, 2-4 feet of storm surge, isolated tornadoes throughout the night and dangerous surf and rip currents for the next couple of days in the gulf.
8/26/12 5:00 PM
The Center of Isaac is passing just south of Key West. The west coast of Florida is now under a Tropical storm warning.
Isaac is moving west-northwest near 16 miles. It should make a gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed expected over the next 48 hours. The center is expected to move away from the Florida Keys tonight, move over the eastern Gulf Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 miles an hour. It will become a hurricane in a day or two.
Expect 4-10 inches of rain, 2-4 feet of storm surge, isolated tornadoes throughout the night and dangerous surf and rip currents for the next couple of days in the gulf.
8/25/12 2:00PM
Isaac has not strengthened about 50 miles south-southeast of Key West.
There’s a hurricane warning from Bonita Beach south.
There’s a tropical storm warning from Bonita Beach north.
Isaac is moving west-northwest near 18 miles an hour and is expected to slow down.
The center of Isaac is expected to move near or over the lower Florida Keys later today and tonight and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 miles an hour with some strengthening predicted but it’s become less likely it will become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys.
4 to 12 inches of rain are possible. Hurricane conditions are possible in the warning area. Storm surge of 4 to 6 feet are possible along the southwest coast of Florida. Tornadoes are possible over south Florida. Dangerous surf and rip currents will continue in the Gulf. See below for evacuations and shelter information:
8/26/12 9:15AM
Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to be near the Florida Keys later today and into the eastern Gulf on Monday. It’s about 131 miles east southeast of Key West moving west northwest at 20 miles an hour.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 miles an hour. Some strengthening is expected and it may be a hurricane when it reaches the Keys. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center.
There’s a hurricane warning for Bonita Beach south.
There’s a Tropical Storm warning from Bonita Beach north.
Four to 12 inches of rain are possible. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in southwest Florida and the Keys today.
Southwest Florida may get 4 to 6 feet of storm surge. Isolated tornadoes are possible and there’s dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Dial 2-1-1 for evacuation and shelter information.
The Lee County Emergency Operations Center has ordered a mandatory evacuation for the following areas of the county:
Bonita Beach
Fort Myers Beach
Big & Little Hickory Islands
Black Island
Lovers Key
San Carlos Island
Five hurricane shelters will be opened this morning:
The Red Cross will operate hurricane shelters at Varsity Lakes Middle School and East Lee County High School. Those shelters will open at Noon today.
Lee County will operate hurricane shelters at Island Coast High School, South Fort Myers High School and Dunbar High School. The shelter at South Fort Myers High School will be the ONLY pet friendly shelter. Pets are not allowed at any other public shelters. These shelters will open this morning at 11:00 a.m.
Lee County Health Dept. is also opening a Special-Needs Shelter at Harborside Event Center at 11am.
Collier County has made a recommendation for a voluntary precautionary evacuation of some areas of the county.
- areas West and South of U.S. 41 and the adjacent low lying areas.
- mobile and modular home residents in the unincorporated areas of Collier County.
Collier County Emergency Management will manage the following shelters beginning at 10 a.m.:
· Golden Gate High School, 2925 Titan Way, Naples
· Cypress Palm Middle School, 4255 18th Ave NE, Naples
· (Limited Pet Friendly) North Collier Regional Park, 15000 Livingston Rd., Naples
· (Special Needs – pre-registered) Palmetto Ridge High School, 1655 Victory Lane, Naples
(The Red Cross is indirectly supporting these sites)
8/25/12 8:30PM
There’s a hurricane warning in effect for Bonita Beach south.
There’s a tropical storm watch from Bonita Beach north to the Suwannee River.
Tropical Storm Isaac is off the coast of northeastern Cuba. It’s expected to become a hurricane tomorrow near the Florida Keys.
Mandatory evacuations could be called Sunday for the Lee County barrier islands, beaches and low lying areas along the Caloosahatchee River if the predicted 5 to 7 foot storm surge remains in the 5 a.m. forecast. There are voluntary evacuations in Collier west and south of US 41 and in RV and mobile home parks.
8/25/12 5:50 PM
The center of Isaac is moving along the north coast of eastern Cuba.
It’s expected to move northwest for 12 hours then turn west-northwest. It’s possible it could make a sharper turn than forecast. It will become a hurricane near the Florida Keys or over the southeastern Gulf and could be significantly stronger than currently forecast.
There’s a hurricane warning from Bonita beach south, a tropical storm warning for Lake Okeechobee, a tropical storm watch for Bonita beach to the Suwanee river,
Tropical storm force winds extend out up to 205 miles from the center. Hurricane conditions in the warning area in southwest Florida are expected on Sunday.
Eight to 20 inches of rain are possible. There could be 5 to 7 foot storm surge near the coast during high tide.
8/24/12 3:00 PM
The center of Tropical Storm Isaac is now near the north coast of Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are at 60 miles an hour with higher gusts. There’s a hurricane warning in effect for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward. There’s a Tropical Storm warning in effect for Lake Okeechobee and a Tropical Storm watch from north of Bonita Beach to Tarpon Springs.
Isaac is moving northwest near 17 miles an hour. It will approach Cuba tonight and the Florida Keys and south Florida Sunday or Sunday night. Some strengthening is forecast and is expected to become a hurricane Sunday.
Tropical storm force winds extend out up to 205 miles from the center. Eight to 20 inches of rain are possible. Hurricane conditions in the warning area in southwest Florida are expected on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected by early Sunday.
Storm surge, the combination of storm surge and the tide, will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters of up to 5 to 7 feet in southwest Florida during high tide.
8/25/1211:30 a.m.
A Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward from Bonita Beach to Tarpon Springs. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward including the entire Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along Florida's east coast to Sebastien Inet with a Tropical Storm Watch issued from the Sebastien Inlet north to Tarpon Springs.
The latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows the center of Tropical Storm Issac approaching the southeast coast of Cuba on a northward projectory at about 27 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Isaac's northwesterly track is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.
Isaac is projected to be over central Cuba by tonight, with strengthening expected tonight through Monday. Isaac is expected to become a Category One Hurricane Sunday or Sunday night when it's over or near the Florida Keys.
City of Naples officials say they expect Southwest Florida may experience storm surge at or near high tide causing high water level elevation in bays and canals. Residents are urged to remove vessels from the water or secure them appropriately.
8/25/12 8:40 a.m.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for:
-The Florida Keys
-The Florida West Coast from Bonita Beach Southward
-The Dry Tortugas
-Florida Bay
-The Florida East Coast from Golden Beach Southward
A Tropical Storm Warningis in effect for:
-The Florida East Coast from Jupiter Inlet Southward
-Lake Okeechobee
Tropical Storm Isaac is emerging from the west coast of Haiti and moving Northwest at about 14 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds near 60 miles per hour.
Some strengthening is expected after the storm moves over eastern Cuba later today and Isaac is forecast to reach hurricane strength as it approaches the Florida Keys on Sunday. Monroe County Emergency Management officials are urging visitors to leave the Keys.
A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions are expected at least 36 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm force winds.
8/24/12 5:00 PM
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for:
- The Florida Keys
- The Florida West Coast South of Bonita Beach
- The Florida East Coast South of Jupiter Inlet
- Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee
Tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.
The storm has intensified and now has winds of 65 mph. The projected path has also shifted slightly back toward southwest Florida. The models now show the storm cutting across Cuba instead of staying over
land for a significant amount of time.
These factors have now raised the chance of stronger winds in our area. We went from less than a 25 percent
of 40 mph winds to now a 32% chance and a 12% chance of winds up to 60 mph. Time frames continue to have this impacting the area late Sunday and early Monday. Some additional strengthening is forecast while the center remains over water. Isaac will approach the southern coast of Hispaniola now and move near
or over eastern Cuba on Saturday and Sunday. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Saturday morning.
8/24/12 3:00 PM
Isaac is moving toward the northwest near 14 miles an hour and is expected to continue for the next couple of days in this direction. The center will approach the southern coast of Hispaniola this afternoon, pass near or over Haiti tonight and move near or over eastern and center Cuba Saturday and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 miles an hour with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast of Hispaniola tonight and Isaac could be near hurricane strength at landfall. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center.
Watches will likely be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today and are
also possible for portions of southern Florida. Isaac has become better organized
during the past several hours.
It should head northwestward for the next 72 hours steer by the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic toward a weakness in the ridge over the southeastern U.S. While the
organization has improved the structure is still does not favor rapid intensification
despite a very favorable upper-level wind pattern. The early part of the intensity
forecast shows a little more strengthening than earlier and it's possible that Isaac
could be near hurricane strength when it reaches Hispaniola. Land interaction will
limit the intensity from 24-48 hours and this part of the forecast may need some
adjustment after its seen what structure Isaac has after crossing Hispaniola. Isaac
should strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico with the forecast showing the cyclone becoming
a hurricane before reaching the northern gulf coast.
8/24/12 9:00 AM
· At 5am EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Isaac was located about 230 miles southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, or approximately 940 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
· Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a more southern circulation position last night, but that center is moving a little north of due west at 15 mph. Another Hurricane Hunter plane is currently enroute to Isaac and will give a better position estimate and track later this morning. Nonetheless, a general west-northwest motion is expected later today, followed by a turn to the northwest tonight. Read more for the "Florida Outlook":
· High pressure responsible for steering Isaac is weakening and shifting east. Computer model track guidance is in good agreement and many of these, along with the official NHC forecast, take Tropical Storm Isaac on a northwest course across southern Haiti tonight and then across eastern and central Cuba on Saturday.
· Isaac is then forecast to emerge into the Florida Straits early Sunday morning and move over or near the Lower Florida Keys late Sunday night. Isaac should continue a northwest motion into the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making a turn more towards the north on Wednesday, eventually making landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Louisiana.
· Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Although Isaac remains poorly organized, there is still time for Isaac to strengthen a little today before starting to get disrupted by land.
· Any land interaction with Haiti tonight and Cuba tomorrow will likely weaken the storm, and there is a 30% chance that Isaac could weaken to a depression. However, if Isaac remains intact, warm water in the Florida Straits will allow for some re-strengthening once it emerges from Cuba.
· There is a 25% chance that Isaac could become a hurricane before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast and a 40% chance it stays a tropical storm.
· Isaac remains a large storm, with tropical storm force winds extending as far as 185 miles from the center.
· Several Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions will be deployed again today that will help further increase confidence in the long-range track and intensity. It is important to note that computer model guidance, especially beyond 72 hours, can still be unreliable.
Florida outlook:
- Tropical Storm Watches could be issued as early as this afternoon or tonight for portions of southern Florida. The Florida Panhandle and much of West Central and South Florida remains within the 5 day error cone. Remember that the cone does not necessarily forecast impacts.Everyone in and near the error cone should continue to closely monitor this system and continue to review their preparedness plans.
- There is now a 40% chance that the middle and lower Keys could receive tropical storm force winds within the next 5 days. Other areas of South and Southwest Florida have a 20-40% chance. Tampa currently has a 30% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, Tallahassee has a 24% chance and Pensacola has a 28% chance. All of Florida still has less than a 5% chance of seeing hurricane force winds within 5 days.
- It is too early to forecast the extent of any affects Tropical Storm Isaac will have on Florida. However, the large nature of Isaac could bring areas of heavy rainfall to South Florida and West Central Florida, and then eventually Northwest Florida which could lead to flooding issues. Flood Warnings are in effect for 6 Florida rivers. Storms in the eastern Gulf are also prone to producing tornadoes and large waves.
8/23/12 5:15 PM
At 5pm the National Hurricane Center in Miami says Isaac is a minor tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is moving west-northwest at 16 mph and is 180 miles south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The latest forecast shows Isaac will likely remain a tropical storm as it moves across the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba. It is now forecast to become a hurricane after crossing Cuba sometime on Sunday. The path has shifted slightly west but Florida is still vulnerable. The center of the latest prediction path calls for Isaac to be a Category 1 hurricane Monday morning over Cuba and in the Gulf of Mexico west of Tampa at 8 a.m. Tuesday.
State Emergency Management Director Bryan Koon said the Federal Emergency Management Agency already has moved supplies into the Jacksonville area as a precaution.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 10 has become Tropical Storm Joyce in the Atlantic, though the forecast track has it going nowhere near the U.S.
8/23/12 9:00 AM
Tropical storm Isaac is expected to gain strength after hitting the Dominican Republic and Haiti early this morning. Forecasters say it’s likely to approach Hispaniola and Haiti, as a hurricane late today or early Friday after intensifying over the Caribbean Sea. It was predicted to move on to Cuba as a tropical storm then come near Florida as a hurricane later in the week.
The National Hurricane Center says Isaac is 255 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph moving west near 12 mph.
Collier County Emergency Officials say they are stocking shelters and urge residents and visitors to prepare. If it comes ashore Monday as a Category 1 hurricane, Isaac would be the first storm to hit southwest Florida since Wilma in 2005.
